From the BBC:
“Brexit: No-deal dossier shows
worst-case scenario – Gove”
A leaked cross-government study
warning of the impact of a no-deal Brexit outlines a "worst-case
scenario", cabinet minister Michael Gove has said. Details from the
dossier warn of food and medicine shortages if the UK leaves the EU without a
deal. Mr Gove, who is responsible for no-deal preparation, said the document
was old and Brexit planning had accelerated since Boris Johnson became PM. But
he acknowledged no deal would bring disruption, or "bumps in the
road". The leak comes as Mr Johnson is to meet European leaders later this
week. The prime minister will insist there must be a new Brexit deal when he
holds talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel
Macron. According to Operation
Yellowhammer, the dossier leaked to the Sunday Times, the UK could face months
of disruption at its ports after a no-deal Brexit. And plans to avoid a hard
border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic are unlikely to prove
sustainable, it adds.
The dossier says leaving the EU
without a deal could lead to:
- Fresh food becoming less
available and prices rising
- A hard Irish border after plans
to avoid checks fail, sparking protests
- Fuel becoming less available and
2,000 jobs being lost if the government sets petrol import tariffs to 0%,
potentially causing two oil refineries to close
- UK patients having to wait longer
for medicines, including insulin and flu vaccines
- A rise in public disorder and
community tensions resulting from a shortage of food and drugs
- Passengers being delayed at EU
airports, Eurotunnel and Dover
- Freight disruption at ports
lasting up to three months, caused by customs checks, before traffic flow
improves to 50-70% of the current rate
A No 10 source told the BBC the
dossier had been leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence
discussions with EU leaders. They added that the document "is from when
ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the
funds were not available". Responding to the leak, Mr Gove said some of
the concerns about a no-deal Brexit had been "exaggerated". He said: "It's certainly the case that
there will be bumps in the road, some element of disruption in the event of
no-deal. "But the document that has
appeared in the Sunday Times was an attempt, in the past, to work out what the
very, very worst situation would be so that we could take steps to mitigate
that.
"And we have taken
steps."
Mr Gove also claimed some MPs
were "frustrating" the government's chances of securing a new deal
with the EU. He said: "Sadly, there are some in the House of Commons who
think they can try to prevent us leaving on October 31st. And as long as they
continue to try to make that argument, then that actually gives some heart to
some in the European Union that we won't leave on October 31st. "The sooner that everyone recognises that
we will leave on that day, the quicker we can move towards a good deal in
everyone's interests." Business minister Kwasi Kwarteng told Sky News'
Sophy Ridge on Sunday: "I think there's a lot of scaremongering around and
a lot of people are playing into project fear."
'Completely insane'
But a former head of the civil
service, Lord Kerslake - who described the document as "credible" -
said the dossier "lays bare the scale of the risks we are facing with a
no-deal Brexit in almost every area". "These risks are completely
insane for this country to be taking and we have to explore every avenue to
avoid them," he told BBC Radio 4's Broadcasting House. Irish Deputy Prime
Minister Simon Coveney said, in a tweet, that Dublin had "always been
clear" a hard border in Ireland "must be avoided". The Irish
backstop - the provision in former prime minister Theresa May's withdrawal
agreement that could see Northern Ireland continue to follow some of the same
trade rules as the Republic of Ireland and the rest of the EU, thus preventing
a hard border - was an "insurance policy" designed to protect the
peace process, he said. Michelle O'Neill, Sinn Fein's deputy leader, accused Mr
Johnson of treating the Northern Ireland peace process as a
"commodity" in Brexit negotiations. She said Ireland as a whole had been voicing
concerns about a no-deal Brexit for months. The SNP's Stephen Gethins said the
documents lay bare the "sheer havoc Scotland and the UK are hurtling
towards".
What is the Irish border
backstop?
Liberal Democrat MP Tom Brake
said they showed the effects of a no-deal Brexit should be taken more
seriously. "The government has simply, I think, pretended that this wasn't
an issue," he said Ministers were in "a real pickle" since
"the US has said that if that border is jeopardised, we're not going to
get a trade deal with them", he added. Speaker of the US House of
Representatives Nancy Pelosi said on Wednesday that a US-UK trade deal would
not get through Congress if Brexit undermined the Good Friday Agreement.
Boris Johnson will this week
visit EU leaders
The leak comes as the prime
minister prepares to travel to Berlin to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel
on Wednesday, before going to Paris to see French President Emmanuel Macron on
Thursday. Mr Johnson is expected to say Parliament cannot and will not change
the outcome of the 2016 EU referendum and will insist there must be a new deal
to replace Mrs May's withdrawal agreement - defeated three times by MPs - if
the UK is to leave the EU with a deal. However, it is thought their discussions
will chiefly focus on issues such as foreign policy, security, trade and the
environment, ahead of the G7 summit next weekend. Meanwhile, a cross-party
group of more than 100 MPs has urged the prime minister to recall Parliament
and let it sit permanently until the UK leaves the EU. In a letter, MPs say the
country is "on the brink of an economic crisis". Labour leader Jeremy
Corbyn also reiterated his call for MPs to work together to stop a no-deal
Brexit. Elsewhere, anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller said the government had
"unequivocally" accepted it could not shut down Parliament to clear
the way for a no-deal Brexit. She told Sky's Sophy Ridge On Sunday: "What
they have said is, unequivocally, they accept that to close down Parliament, to
bypass them in terms of Brexit - stopping a no-deal Brexit, in particular - is
illegal." Ms Miller said she would continue to seek further reassurances
that MPs would be able to pass legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit. Anti-Brexit
campaigner Gina Miller said the government had accepted it could not shut down
Parliament to clear the way for a no-deal Brexit
^ A No-Deal Brexit in October
will definitely create chaos and violence within the UK. It can be avoided, but
doesn’t seem likely since the new Prime Minister (Johnson) has said he would
rather the UK leave the EU on time with no deal than stay in and the EU leaders
do not see any reason to change the already agreed upon Withdrawal Agreement. ^
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