From the BBC:
“NI 100: Majority believes NI
will leave UK within 25 years”
A majority of people on both
sides of the Irish border believes Northern Ireland will have left the UK
within 25 years, a poll suggests. Most respondents said they thought NI would
still be part of the UK in 10 years time, but not in 25 years. In NI, 49% of
people said if there was a border poll today they would vote to remain in the
UK, with 43% backing a united Ireland and 8% undecided. The poll was
commissioned by BBC NI's Spotlight programme.
In the Republic of Ireland, where
a vote would have to be held in parallel with any border poll in Northern
Ireland, 51% said they would vote for a United Ireland, 27% would vote for
Northern Ireland to stay in the UK and 22% were not sure.
Border poll NI results
When asked if they thought NI woud be part of the UK in 10 years, 55% in NI and 59% in the Republic of Ireland said they thought it would be. But when asked if this would be the case in 25 years, 51% of people in NI and 54% in the Republic said NI would have left the UK. The poll also suggested that only 40% of people in Northern Ireland saw its formation 100 years ago as a cause for celebration. Most people on both sides of the Irish border believed there was a potential for a return to political violence in Northern Ireland, according to the poll. The poll was carried out over the Easter period when clashes were taking place in a number of areas across Northern Ireland, sparked by loyalist anger over the Northern Ireland trade protocol and the Police Service of Northern Ireland's handling of a republican funeral during the pandemic. Of those surveyed in Northern Ireland, 76% agreed with the proposition that "the dispute over Northern Ireland's status remains unresolved and there is still a potential for violence in the future". In the Republic, an even higher proportion, 87%, echoed that view.
Potential for violence poll
results
A total of 48% of those surveyed
in Northern Ireland told the pollsters they want the controversial trade
protocol introduced as part of the UK's EU Withdrawal Agreement scrapped, in
line with demands from the DUP and other unionist parties, while 46% wanted the
protocol to be retained. Unionists have claimed the protocol, which requires
checks on goods moving across the Irish Sea from Great Britain to Northern
Ireland, threatens the constitutional integrity of the UK. Interviewed for the
Spotlight programme, Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Micheál Martin insisted
the protocol was not tearing the UK apart, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson
said he was working to "sandpaper" away what he described as the
"ludicrous barriers" to trade across the Irish Sea.
In the Republic, a majority of
those surveyed supported the Irish government's defence of the trade protocol,
with 74% saying it should not be scrapped. Although within Northern Ireland a
larger number of people rejected the trade protocol than backed it, the poll
also provided an indication that a majority wants to retain some form of
economic link with the EU. Some 56% of those surveyed in Northern Ireland told
the pollsters that they wanted their assembly members (MLAs) to vote to stay
within the EU Single Market when the matter is put to a vote at Stormont in
three years' time. Only 38% indicated they wanted to leave the EU Single
Market.
Single market NI results
In Northern Ireland 37% of people
surveyed told the pollsters they would like to see a border poll within the
next five years, whilst a further 29% want it to happen at some point after
that. However the prime minister told the Spotlight programme that he cannot
see any Northern Ireland secretary considering a border poll for a "very,
very long time to come". The prime minister told BBC Northern Ireland that
as "a proud unionist" he views the centenary of Northern Ireland's
formation as a cause for celebration. However only 40% of the people surveyed
agreed with the proposition that "the formation of Northern Ireland 100
years ago was an achievement which should be celebrated", while 45%
disagreed with the statement.
Outright celebration of the
centenary turned out to be the least popular of five options included in the
survey. In Northern Ireland, 48% agreed that the partition of Ireland and the
creation of a land border 100 years ago was "a negative development which
should be regretted".
Polling results
A total of 50% wanted to
concentrate on current challenges such as the Covid pandemic rather than the
centenary, whilst 61% backed marking Northern Ireland's formation in a neutral
manner acknowledging the differing opinions on the subject. The same
proportion, 61%, agreed with the statement "Northern Ireland's history is
not just about constitutional politics and the centenary should provide an
opportunity to showcase its sporting, business, scientific and cultural
achievements". In the Republic, celebrating the formation of Northern
Ireland was even more unpopular with just 12% agreeing with the proposition. The
most popular options were marking this year's centenary in a neutral manner,
which was favoured by 74% of those surveyed and regretting partition - a view
71% agreed with. The poll commissioned by BBC Northern Ireland's Spotlight
programme was carried out by the NI Pollsters LucidTalk and the Irish polling
firm Ireland Thinks. In Northern Ireland polling was carried out online between
5 and 7 April and 2,845 responses were used for the analysis. In the Republic
of Ireland polling took place between 6 and 9 April and 1,088 responses were
analysed. The margin of error is +/- 2.5%.
The results from a number of
other questions in the survey regarding what should happen to the Irish flag,
national anthem, the Stormont Executive and the health service in the event of
a United Ireland will be released on BBC Northern Ireland's political programme
The View on Thursday night. Full details of the poll will be available via the
BBC NI news website and other BBC news and current affairs programmes during
the course of the week. The Spotlight film - A Contested Centenary - is
presented by BBC News NI's former political editor Mark Devenport, who has been
meeting people whose family stories are intertwined with Northern Ireland's
often tragic 100 year history.
Spotlight As Northern Ireland reaches its 100th birthday, Spotlight has commissioned a major opinion poll on both sides of the border to find out whether people want the Brexit protocol scrapped, whether they are concerned about a potential resurgence of violence and how much longer they believe Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK.
^ 2021 marks the 100th
anniversary of when the UK broke-up a united Ireland and created Northern
Ireland (and along with it the official 3 Tier Discrimination Policy: British
(English, Welsh and Scots) at the top, Northern Irish Protestants in the middle
and Northern Irish Catholics at the bottom.
Catholics in Northern Ireland did
not receive the same equal and basic Civil Rights that every other citizen of
the UK held until the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 (77 years after N.I. was
created) that ended the 30 Year violence that was The Troubles.
The Troubles started when
Northern Irish Catholics peacefully started using civil disobedience (following
Martin Luther King's example in the US) in 1966. The Northern Irish Protestants
did not want to give up what little power the British gave them and so attacked
and killed the Northern Irish Catholics (the same way American White
Southerners did to American Black Southerners in the 1950s-1960s.)
The British sent in their
Military in 1969 and at first the Northern Irish Catholics saw the British
Military as a buffer between them and the Protestants and welcomed them (Northern
Irish Catholics hoped the British Government and the British Military would be
like the American Federal Government and the Federalized National Guard who
went into the American South and stopped the White Southern Racists and the
violence.)
That support changed after the
British Military openly sided with the Northern Irish Protestants and started
massacring unarmed and peaceful Northern Irish Catholics (ie. The 1970 Falls
Curfew, the 1971 Ballymurphy Massacre, the 1972 Bloody Sunday, etc.)
After Bloody Sunday, the Northern
Irish Catholics and the world had direct proof that the British Government and
Military fully supported the Northern Irish Protestants and sought to keep the Northern
Irish Catholics “in-their-place” through any means - including murder. The British Government and
the British Military covered-up and lied about their role for decades, but have
since openly admitted their crimes. From 1972 until 1998 it was open-warfare with
the British Government, the British Military, the Police and the Northern Irish
Protestants on one side and the Northern Irish Catholics on the other. The death
and violence hit not only Northern Ireland, but the Republic of Ireland, the
United Kingdom, Belgium, West Germany, Gibraltar, the Netherlands, Germany,
etc.
The Troubles only ended when the
United States stepped-in to get all the sides together (the same way we did in
the Former Yugoslavia around the same time.) 1,935 civilians were killed and
over 50,000 wounded, injured or permanently disabled.
1921 is not something to be
celebrated as it directly-led to the discrimination and death of thousands of
innocent men, women and children. It is a dark-stain on British History.
I would like to see Northern
Ireland reunite with the Republic of Ireland (which is something the 1998 Good
Friday Agreement also allows, but no vote has ever been allowed to take place.
Even Scotland was allowed to vote on whether they wanted to be independent or
stay part of the UK in 2014 - they chose to stay.)
With Brexit the issue is once
again on the minds of the people of Northern Ireland. The Northern Irish
Protestants hate the new Customs rules and checks between Great Britain and
Northern Ireland (there are also checks between Northern Ireland and the
Republic of Ireland.) The Northern Irish Catholics hate that NI left the EU and
that the R.O.I. is still apart of it.
I don’t see things staying the
same in Northern Ireland. Either the violence will return (I really hope it
doesn’t) or something else will happen (an independence vote) that will change
things one way or the other. I don’t think it will take 25 years. ^
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