From the BBC:
“Five things to know about
Canada's general election”
Canadians will be going to the
polls on 21 October, to decide whether to give Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's
party a second term in office. The parties have been refining their pitches to
voters over the summer - and their attacks on opponents. Now the starting gun has been fired.
Here are five things to know.
1. It's a referendum on Trudeau
After winning an historic,
come-from-behind victory four years ago, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, 47, is
seeking a second mandate. He has kept a
number of key promises - from legalising recreational cannabis to bringing in a
means-tested child benefit programme - but he also failed to follow through on
some major commitments. A vow to overhaul of Canada's electoral system was
dropped and a pledge to balance the budget this year has been broken. And while the Canadian public had a longer
than usual political honeymoon with Mr Trudeau, he's since lost some of his
lustre. First, Mr Trudeau was found to
have broken federal ethics rules by taking a tropical vacation to the island
owned by the Aga Khan, the philanthropist and spiritual leader, in 2016. Then
came a disastrous overseas trip to India. Taking place against a backdrop of photo-ops
showcasing the Trudeau family in elaborate traditional Indian outfits, the trip
was light on formal business and ended in controversy when an alleged Canadian
Sikh separatist was invited to official events. Then came a third hit - the SNC-Lavalin
affair, a political crisis related to attempts to pressure a former attorney
general to cut a deal for a firm facing a corruption trial, which tarnished Mr
Trudeau's personal brand with Canadians. He has also faced criticism for buying a
C$4.5bn ($3.4bn; £2.8bn) oil pipeline to help ensure its expansion and for not
cancelling a controversial arms deal with Saudi Arabia. Mr Trudeau says he remains the best option for
Canadians who want a progressive government - but he can no longer campaign as
an outsider on a promise of change, "He
now has a record to run on," says political scientist Alex Marland.
2. There are some fresh faces
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer
currently has the best shot of unseating the prime minister - but the
40-year-old is still a relative unknown after winning the party's leadership
vote by a whisker in 2017. Nor does he
have "the celebrity-ness of Justin Trudeau," says Matthew John, with
government relations firm Crestview Strategy, who has ties to the party. Mr John says he will be watching whether Mr
Scheer can "cut through with his own brand and his own unique offering to
Canadians to get his share of media". This will also be the first federal campaign
for the NDP's Jagmeet Singh, 40, who took the helm of the left-leaning party
two years ago. His party has been
struggling to raise funds, a third of his caucus has chosen not to run again,
and the party has been slow to announce a full slate of candidates. Political
analysts are predicting the party could lose a significant portion of their
seats, but NDP insider Anne McGrath says while there are challenges, going into
a campaign as an underdog means they can "outperform expectations". It's a chance "for people to actually
take - I wouldn't even say take a second look - take a first look at
[Singh]", she says. In Quebec, the
separatist Bloc Quebecois also has a new leader, Yves-Francois Blanchet, 54,
and Green Party leader Elizabeth May, 65, is running in her fourth general
election.
3. Climate change is a big deal
Pocketbook and economic issues
have emerged as top of mind with Canadians this election, as well as the
environment. The economy is showing
signs of momentum and unemployment is at near historic lows - but not all
families feel they're getting ahead. In
2018, the average Canadian owed $1.74 for every dollar they earned - the
highest debt to income ratio in the G7. Sky-high housing prices in cities like
Toronto and Vancouver means home ownership is a challenge. The Liberals are touting achievements like
their child benefits programme, which helped pull some 278,000 children from
poverty in 2017, according to federal statistics. The Conservative are focusing
their message on Canadians anxious about their financial future. One sharp battle line has been drawn over the
federal carbon tax, which was imposed on four of Canada's 10 provinces that had
failed to introduce their own plans for tackling climate change. The national
price on carbon emissions is central to the Liberals' effort to meet the
country's Paris Agreement commitments. While
it will increase things like petrol and fuel costs, the party argues those
costs are returned to Canadians through an annual tax rebate. But "there are lots of people - maybe
even ones who think [climate change] is a problem - who say 'I don't have the
money right now'", says Mr John. Mr
Scheer, who has called it an "unfair tax on everything", has vowed to
repeal the carbon tax as his first order of business if elected. The NDP is also carving out a niche over
affordability by talking student debt, housing, and wages. While voters say they want campaigns to focus
on the economy, climate, and healthcare, Mr Marland says the ballot box question
is likely to boil down to: "Do I want Justin Trudeau to continue to be
prime minister of Canada or not?"
4. Who's ahead, who's behind?
The Liberals have steadily been
clawing back support after their numbers cratered earlier this year in the wake
of the SNC-Lavalin affair. National polls suggest the Liberals and the
Conservatives are running roughly neck-and-neck with just over 30% of the
current popular support each. The
Conservatives are doing well in their prairie strongholds of Saskatchewan and
Alberta, while a number of polls indicate the Liberals are leading in vote-rich
provinces of Quebec and Ontario, which are crucial battlegrounds for both
parties. The NDP is placed a distant
third nationally with roughly 14% of Canadian voters saying if they were to
vote today, they would cast a ballot for that party. Still, campaigns matter, and with just over
five weeks to go before voters cast their ballots, many remain undecided - and
there's plenty of time for big shifts in the polls.
5. Could be a good election for
wildcards
The Green Party got a lot of buzz
over the summer. It's polling at historic highs - in some surveys tied with the
NDP - and hopes to more than double the seat count from two to at least five. There's a feeling of "cautious
optimism" in the war room, says campaign manager Jonathan Dickie. The Greens are "trying to position
[themselves] a little outside the political spectrum" and angling for
voters "willing to take a little bit of risk", he says. Two other candidates hoping to defy long-shot
odds are Jody Wilson Raybould and Jane Philpott. Both were prominent Liberal Cabinet ministers
before they resigned in protest over the SNC-Lavalin affair and were eventually
booted from caucus by Mr Trudeau. They
are now running as independent candidates in ridings (constituencies) they won
as Liberals in 2015, without the support of a party campaign machine behind
them.
^ Canada and Canadians believe
they are morally better than others -like Americans. I am saying that as a Canadian-American. If they want to show action rather than words
in that respect then they need to vote out Trudeau. It’s not only a question of
political party, but Trudeau’s actions. He was found (by a Canadian Government
investigation) to be unethical and abusing his government position to influence
the outcomes and to making his minsters to “over-look” the law. If that doesn’t
make Canadians not re-elect Trudeau than they are morally bankrupt and can no
longer hold their head up high within Canada or the rest of the world. ^
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