From AFT:
“Russia preparing to attack
Ukraine by late January: Ukraine defense intelligence agency chief”
(The Ukraine military's
assessment of a how a potential attack by Russia would play out shows the
country ringed by Russian battalion tactical groups, or BTGs.)
Russia has more than 92,000
troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the
end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense
intelligence agency told Military Times. Such an attack would likely involve
airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east,
amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through
neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times
Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.
Russia’s large-scale Zapad 21
military exercise earlier this year proved, for instance, that they can drop
upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once, he said. The
attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating than
anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014 that has seen some
14,000 Ukrainians killed. Speaking to the Washington Post on Friday, Ukraine’s
new Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said it was unclear whether Russian
President Vladimir Putin has yet decided to attack. But Russia is building
capacity to do so, Budanov told Military Times, increasing troop levels and
weapons systems in occupied Crimea and staging systems like Iskandar
short-range ballistic missile systems and other weapons elsewhere near the
border. And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during
that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.
“It is no problem for us and the
Russians,” Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather. Any such attack,
however, would first follow a series of psychological operations currently
underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its ability to fight,
said Budanov, speaking through an interpreter. “They want to foment unrest,
through protests and meetings, that show the people are against the
government,” he said. Those efforts include ongoing anti-COVID-19 vaccination
protests that Budanov said have been organized by Russia, which is also trying
to stoke unrest related to the economy and energy supplies. In addition,
Budanov said Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over an
incident dubbed “Wagnergate” — a controversy involving about 30 members of the
Russian private military group responsible for attacks inside Ukraine. The
Wagner group members, who made their way to Belarus, were supposed to be
brought back to Ukraine to be detained, but instead wound up being sent to
Russia with the help of the Belarus KGB, Budanov said. Russian psychological
operations are being used to show “our authorities betrayed the people,” said
Budanov.
The ongoing border conflict
between Poland and Belarus, which is trying to send refugees into Europe
through Poland’s border, is part of that effort, he said. “They want to make
the situation inside the country more and more dangerous and hard and make a
situation where we have to change the government,” said Budanov. “If they can’t
do that, than military troops will do their job.” Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine
intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar.
“Our evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues,” he said. “All
available information indicates that the armed forces of Russia permanently
sustain a powerful offensive grouping around Ukraine,” Roman Mashovets, deputy
head of Ukraine’s Office of the President for national security and defense,
told Military Times Wednesday.
(Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo
Budanov, head of that nation's defense intelligence agency.)
The Russian embassy did not
respond to a request for comment Saturday. The Pentagon on Saturday declined to
comment on Budanov’s assessments about the timing and nature of any potential
Russian attack, instead pointing to comments made Wednesday and Thursday by Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin. The U.S. continues to see “troubling behavior from
Russia,” Austin told reporters Wednesday. “We are not sure exactly what Mr.
Putin is up to,” he said. “But these movements certainly have our attention.
And I would urge Russia to be more transparent about what they are up to take
steps to live up to the Minsk agreements. Our support for Ukraine sovereignty
territorial integrity remains unwavering.” After meeting with Reznikov on
Thursday, Austin said the U.S. will “continue to advance our shared priority to
counter Russian aggression and to deepen our cooperation in such areas as Black
Sea security, cyber defense and intelligence sharing.”
Budanov said that ideally, the
U.S. would help deter any Russian incursion, through additional military aid
and increased diplomatic and economic pressure, including more sanctions
against Russia and the seizure and blocking of Russian banking accounts. Also,
in addition to U.S. aid already promised and delivered, including Mark VI patrol
boats, Javelin anti-armor systems and AN/TPQ-53 light counter-fire radar
systems, Ukraine seeks additional air, missile and drone defense systems and
electronic jamming devices, Budonov said. Patriot missile batteries and counter
rocket, artillery and mortar systems are on Ukraine’s wish list. The AN/TPQ-53
systems were used to great effect, Ukraine military officials have previously
told Military Times. Budanov said the Javenlin systems have also been used
against Russian forces. Those, along with Turkish-manufactured drones, used
against Russian-aligned separatist artillery troops, have a significant
psychological deterrent value, said Budanov, making Russians think twice about
attacking. Still, he said, Ukraine needs more help from America. “I think it’s
not enough for us right now,” he said of current and promised U.S. aid to
Ukraine. “We need more. No countries except Ukraine have open war with Russia.
And we have for seven years. That’s why we’re sure the U.S should give us
everything we didn’t get before. And right now. It’s the right time for this.
Because after it could be very late.”
^ I can see Russia invading the
rest of Ukraine like they did Crimea in 2014. The US, Canada, NATO and the EU
needs to do a lot more to support Ukraine and to deter Russia. ^
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