12,500 Strong

From the BBC:

“Loyalist paramilitary groups in NI 'have 12,500 members'”

There are an estimated 12,500 members of loyalist paramilitary groups in NI, a leaked security assessment has shown. Briefings, obtained by BBC NI's Spotlight programme, cover all the paramilitary groups and are based on PSNI and MI5 intelligence. The assessment says there are about 7,500 people in the UVF and 5,000 in the UDA. Although many are not active, sources say they are still "card carrying" members. Last month, the Independent Reporting Commission (IRC) warned paramilitary groups still pose a "clear and present danger" to Northern Ireland. Set up by the UK and Irish governments, the Commission provides an annual assessment of progress towards ending paramilitarism, and has called for a process to begin to disband the groups. That recommendation is now backed by former Secretary of State Lord Mandelson. He has spoken to Spotlight about talks he was involved in with the UVF leadership, earlier this year. The leaked threat assessment says the Provisional IRA still exists; there are now a dozen paramilitary groups - more than during the Troubles - and seven of these groups are dissident republican.

This is the first full assessment to emerge publicly, since 2015, when the British Government set out the position with all the different groups, following the IRA murder of Belfast man Kevin McGuigan. At that time, the Stormont Executive almost collapsed but was saved by the assessment which said the Provisional IRA was wholly committed to the political process. The new assessment says this is still the position and the IRA is in a much-reduced form and not recruiting or training. But it also says the organisation still has access to weapons.

'There can be no naivety' Democratic Unionist Party MP Gavin Robinson said his party were mindful of the situation. "There can be no naivety around that," he said. "We know that has been the situation for decades. we know at the time of 2015, the security assessment highlighted a commitment to the democratic institutions and a whole commitment to politics but we have to keep our eyes wide open." A Sinn Féin spokesperson again insisted "the IRA is gone, has left the stage and is not coming back". Spotlight is repeated on BBC Two NI on Wednesday and will be available on the BBC iPlayer.

^ The Troubles may have officially ended in 1997, but that doesn’t mean all the groups and problems simply went away. I could feel the tension when I was in Northern Ireland in 2010. Now, with Brexit and all that uncertainty these groups (from both sides) could come back in force. ^

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-55151249