From the BBC:
“US election 2020: What are the
Iowa caucuses and how do they work?”
Four years after the world
watched Donald Trump's momentum build and build until he became the Republican
nominee, America is again deciding who will run for the White House. The
nominees will be chosen through a series of primaries and caucuses in every US
state and territory, starting in Iowa on Monday and ending in Puerto Rico in
early June. Short of a big shock, the Republican nominee will be Donald Trump.
Even though technically he has two challengers, he is so popular among
Republicans, he has a clear run ahead of him. With that in mind, the Democratic
primaries are the only ones worth watching. It's an unusual process, not all of
which makes sense, although we've tried.
Step one: The start line: A whole year before the primaries, the first
candidates emerged from hibernation. Over the year, others woke up and
eventually 28 people announced they were running to become the Democratic
nominee for president. But dwindling funds, luke-warm or (ice-cold) public
reaction and campaign infighting have, to varying degrees, led to 16 candidates
pulling out of the race. Now, with primary season upon us, 12 people remain in
the running. In theory, any one of them could become the nominee. In reality,
only a few have a chance.
Step two: The Iowa caucuses: The
first event of the primary season isn't a primary at all - it's a series of
caucuses, in Iowa, on Monday 3 February. We'll explain the difference between a
primary and a caucus later. What are caucuses? A caucus
involves people attending a meeting - maybe for a few hours - before they vote
on their preferred candidate, perhaps via a head count or a show of hands.
Those meetings might be in just a few select locations - you can't just turn up
at a polling station. As a result, caucuses tend to really suit candidates who
are good at rousing their supporters to get out of bed. People like Bernie
Sanders, for example. Caucuses used to be far more popular back in the day, but
this year, Democrats are holding only four in US states - in Nevada, North
Dakota, Wyoming and Iowa. If any candidate gets under 15% of the vote in any
caucus, their supporters then get to pick a second choice from among the
candidates who did get more than 15%, or they can just choose to sit out the
second vote. Why does Iowa matter?: A win here
for any candidate can help give them momentum and propel them to victory in the
primaries. Why is Iowa first in the primary
calendar? You can blame Jimmy Carter, sort of. Iowa became first in 1972, for
various technical electoral reasons too boring to go into here. But when Carter
ran for president in 1976, his team realised they could grab the momentum by
campaigning early in Iowa. He won there, then surprisingly won the presidency,
and Iowa's fate was sealed. Why does Iowa not matter? Iowa
doesn't represent the entire US - it's largely white, so the way people vote
there will be very, very different than in other states. Its record on picking
the eventual nominees is a bit rubbish too, at least when it comes to
Republicans - when there's an open Republican race, Iowa hasn't opted for the
eventual nominee since 2000. Such names as Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Ted
Cruz have won there in recent years.
Step three: The New Hampshire
primary: Eight days after Iowa on Tuesday, 11 February, is the first primary,
in New Hampshire. The tiny north-eastern state of only 1.3m people will once
again become an unlikely hotbed of political activity. What is a primary? Unlike a
caucus, where voters are expected to turn up at a few limited locations at
certain times and stick around for a while, primary voters can just turn up at
a polling booth and vote in secret. Then leave. How does a primary work? The more
votes a candidate gets in a caucus or primary, the more "delegates"
they are awarded, and all candidates will be hoping to win an unbeatable
majority of delegates. The number of delegates differs in each state, and is
decided by a convoluted series of criteria. In California's primary, for
example, there are 415 Democratic delegates up for grabs this year. In New
Hampshire, it's only 24. This year is a bit different. Any candidate would need
to get at least 15% of the vote in any primary or caucus to be awarded
delegates. There are still 11 candidates in the running - an unusually large
number - so there's a risk the vote share will be spread out and some of the
candidates may struggle to reach 15%. After New Hampshire, we could get a clear
picture of who is struggling, but whoever has claimed the most delegates at
this stage is still far from guaranteed to be the nominee. And even those who
are struggling may not drop out right after New Hampshire, because there is so
much at stake on...
Step four: Super Tuesday A few
other states vote in between New Hampshire and the end of February, but this is
when things really start to warm up: Super Tuesday, on 3 March. What is Super Tuesday? It is the
big date in the primary calendar, when 16 states, territories or groups vote
for their preferred candidate in primaries or caucuses. A third of all the
delegates available in the entire primary season are up for grabs on Super
Tuesday. By the end of the day it could be much clearer who the Democratic
candidate will be. The two states with the most delegates are voting on Super
Tuesday - California (with 415 Democratic delegates) and Texas (228).
California is voting three months earlier than in 2016, making Super Tuesday
even more super than normal. California and Texas are two states with very
diverse populations, so we may see them going for very different candidates
than those chosen in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Step five: The rest of the race: After
hectic Super Tuesday, everyone gets to cool down for a week, before another
busy day on Tuesday, 10 March, when six states vote, with 352 delegates
available. After that, the primary season still has three months left to run
,and at the end, the role of those delegates will become clear...
Step six: The conventions: Hillary
Clinton celebrates becoming the Democratic nominee at the 2016 convention. This
is as good as things got for her campaign. Donald Trump will almost certainly be sworn in
as the Republican nominee at the party convention in Charlotte, North Carolina,
between 24 and 27 August. The Democrats will confirm their candidate at their
own convention between 13 and 16 July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. What happens in a convention? Here's
where those delegates come in. Let's say that during primary season, candidate
A wins 10 delegates. During the convention, those 10 delegates would vote for
candidate A to become the Democratic nominee. (Any party member can apply to be
a delegate - they tend to be party activists or local political leaders.) All
through the Democratic primaries, there are 3,979 delegates available. If any
one candidate wins more than 50% of those delegates during primary season
(that's 1,990 delegates), then they become the nominee in a vote at the
convention. But if we get to the Democratic convention and no-one has more than
50% of the delegates, it becomes what's known as a "contested" or
"brokered" convention. This could well happen this year. There are so
many candidates that no one frontrunner emerges in the primaries, and they
split the delegates between them. In that circumstance, a second vote would
follow. In that second vote, all the 3,979 delegates would vote again, except
this time they would be joined by an estimated 771 "superdelegates".
These are senior party officials past and present (former president Bill
Clinton is one, as is current Vermont senator and presidential contender Bernie
Sanders), and they're free to vote for whomever they wish. If a candidate wins
50% or more in that vote - 2,376 delegates - then they become the nominee. This
is all thanks to a rule change in 2020: last time around, the superdelegates
voted at the start of the convention, with the delegates. But many had pledged
their support to Hillary Clinton even before the convention, leading her rival
Mr Sanders to suggest the deck was stacked against him. He's the one who
campaigned for the change - and it may benefit him in 2020.
Step seven: The presidency? After
inching past Iowa, negotiated New Hampshire, survived Super Tuesday and come
through the convention, there is only one step left for the nominee: the
presidential election, on 3 November. We'll explain how that one works a little
closer to the time.
Full primary season calendar: (Primaries unless stated otherwise)
FEBRUARY
Monday 3: Iowa caucuses (Democratic, Republican)
Tuesday 11: New Hampshire (D,R)
Saturday 22: Nevada (D)
Saturday 29:: South Carolina (D)
MARCH
Tuesday 3 (Super Tuesday): Alabama (D, R) American Samoa caucuses (D) Arkansas
(D, R) California (D, R) Colorado (D, R) Maine (D, R) Massachusetts (D, R) Minnesota
(D, R) North Carolina (D, R) Oklahoma (D, R) Tennessee (D, R) Texas (D, R) Utah
(D, R) Vermont (D, R) Virginia (D) Democrats Abroad (D)
Tuesday 10: Idaho (D, R) Michigan
(D, R) Mississippi (D, R) Missouri (D, R) North Dakota caucuses (D) Washington
state (D, R)
Thursday, 12: Virgin Islands caucuses (R)
Saturday 14: Guam caucuses (R) Northern
Marianas (D)
Tuesday 17: Arizona (D) Florida
(D, R) Illinois (D, R) Northern Marianas caucuses (R) Ohio (D, R)
Tuesday 24: American Samoa
caucuses (R) Georgia (D, R)
Sunday 29: Puerto Rico (D)
APRIL
Saturday 4: Alaska (D) Hawaii
(D) Louisiana (D, R) Wyoming caucuses (D) Tuesday 7: Wisconsin (D)
Tuesday 28: Connecticut (D, R) Delaware
(D, R) Maryland (D, R) New York (D, R) Pennsylvania (D, R) Rhode Island (D, R)
MAY
Saturday 2: Guam caucuses (D)
Kansas (D)
Tuesday 5: Indiana (D, R)
Tuesday 12: Nebraska (D, R) West
Virginia (D, R)
Tuesday 19: Kentucky (D, R) Oregon
(D, R)
JUNE
Tuesday 2: District of
Columbia (D, R) Montana (D, R) New Jersey (D, R) New Mexico (D, R) South Dakota
(D, R)
Saturday 6: Virgin Islands caucuses (D)
Sunday 7: Puerto Rico (R)
^ This does a good job of explaining
a complex system. ^
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.