Monday, February 10, 2020

Outbreak Update

 From Wikipedia:
“2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak”

(Dark Red is Mainland China (where the virus came from), the Red are countries with confirmed virus infected patients and the light Blue are countries with suspected virus infected patients as of February 10, 2010.)

An epidemic of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is affecting mainland China, along with isolated cases in 27 other countries and territories.] It was identified in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province, after 41 people developed pneumonia without a clear cause. The virus, which causes 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is capable of spreading from person to person.  The incubation period (time from exposure to onset of symptoms) ranges from 0 to 24 days, with a mean of 3 days,  but it may be contagious during this period and after recovery.  Symptoms include fever, coughing and breathing difficulties. An estimate of the death rate in February 2020 was 2% of confirmed cases, higher among those who require admission to hospital. As of early February 2020 there is no vaccine and no specific treatment, although several vaccine approaches and antivirals are being investigated.

As of 10 February 2020, 40,627 cases have been confirmed (6,495 serious),  including in every province-level division of China. A larger number of people may have been infected, but not detected (especially mild cases).  As of 10 February 2020, 910 deaths have been attributed to the virus since the first confirmed death on 9 January, with 3,323 recoveries.  The first local transmission outside China occurred in Vietnam between family members, while the first international transmission not involving family occurred in Germany on 22 January. The first death outside China was in the Philippines, where a man from Wuhan died on 1 February. As of 10 February 2020, the death toll from this virus had surpassed the global SARS outbreak in 2003.

Deaths: 910 deaths have been attributed to the virus. The first reported death due to 2019-nCoV infection was a 61-year-old man on 9 January 2020 who was first admitted to a Wuhan hospital on 27 December 2019. The first death outside of China occurred in the Philippines,  when a 44-year-old Chinese male citizen with coronavirus developed severe pneumonia and died on 1 February. According to China's National Health Commission, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.  On 8 February 2020, it was announced that a Japanese and an American died due to the virus in Wuhan. They are the first foreigners killed by the virus. 

 

(From Left to Right: the United Kingdom, Russia and Germany The Red are regions with confirmed virus infected patients and the Light Blue are regions with suspected virus infected patients.)

International responses: Countries/regions with imposed travel restrictions in response to the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak as of 2 February 2020. These include entry bans on Chinese citizens or recent visitors to China, halted issuing of visas to Chinese citizens or reimposed visa requirements on Chinese citizens and also countries that have responded with border closures with China. Since 31 December 2019, some regions and countries near China tightened their screening of selected travellers.  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the United States later issued a Level 1 travel watch.  Guidances and risk assessments were shortly posted by others including the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and Public Health England. In China, airports, railway stations and coach stations installed infrared thermometers. Travelers with a measured fever are taken to medical institutions after being registered and given masks.  Real time Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test was used to confirm new cases of coronavirus infection.

As a result of the outbreak many countries including most of the Schengen area, Armenia, Australia,  India, Iraq,  Indonesia, Kazakhstan,  Kuwait, Malaysia, Maldives, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan,  Vietnam and the United States  have imposed temporary entry bans on Chinese citizens or recent visitors to China, or have ceased issuing visas and reimposed visa requirements on Chinese citizens.  In Asia, Hong Kong, Mongolia, Nepal, North Korea, Russia and Vietnam have also responded with border tightening/closures with mainland China. On 22 January 2020, North Korea closed its borders to international tourists to prevent the spread of the virus into the country. Chinese visitors make up the bulk of foreign tourists to North Korea.

Impact:


(The Red are Canadian Provinces with confirmed virus infected patients.)


 Mainland China: Tourism in China has been hit hard by travel restrictions and fears of contagion, including a ban on both domestic and international tour groups. Many airlines have either cancelled or greatly reduced flights to China and several travel advisories now warn against travel to China. Many countries, including France, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan, have evacuated their nationals from Wuhan and Hubei province.  The majority of schools and universities have extended their annual holidays to mid-February. Overseas students enrolled at Chinese universities have been returning home over fears of being infected—the first cases to be reported by Nepal and Kerala, a southern state of India, were both of students who had returned home. The Finance Ministry of China announced it would fully subsidise personal medical cost incurred by patients.

Hong Kong: Hong Kong has seen high-profile protests that saw tourist arrivals from Mainland China plummet over an eight-month period. The viral epidemic put additional pressure on the travel sector to withstand a prolonged period of downturn. A drop in arrivals from third countries more resilient during the previous months has also been cited as a concern. The city is already in recession  and Moody has lowered the city's credit rating.  The worst economic effects from the outbreak are expected for Australia, Hong Kong and China. There has also been a renewed increase in protest activity as hostile sentiment against Mainland Chinese strengthened over fears of viral transmission from Mainland China, with many calling for the border ports to be closed and for all Mainland Chinese travellers to be refused entry. Incidents have included a number of petrol bombs being thrown at police stations,  a homemade bomb exploding in a toilet,  and foreign objects being thrown onto transit rail tracks between Hong Kong and the Mainland Chinese border. Political issues raised have included concerns that Mainland Chinese may prefer to travel to Hong Kong to seek free medical help (which has since been addressed by the Hong Kong government).  In view of the coronavirus outbreak, the Education Bureau closed all kindergartens, primary schools, secondary schools and special schools until 17 February.  This was later extended to 1 March due to further development of the epidemic. The disruption has raised concerns over the situation of students who are due to take examinations at the end of the year, especially in light of the protest-related disruption that happened in 2019. On 5 February, flag carrier Cathay Pacific requested its 27,000 employees to voluntarily take three weeks of unpaid leave by the end of June. The airline had previously reduced flights to mainland China by 90% and to overall flights by 30%. 

Macau: On 4 February 2020, all casinos in Macau were ordered to shut down for 15 days. Therefore, casinos are to reopen at February 19th.

Australia: 

(Red are Australian States with confirmed virus infected patients)

Australia is expected to be one of three economies worst affected by the epidemic, along with Mainland China and Hong Kong. The total cost to the Australian economy has been estimated at well over AU$1 billion, a figure calculated from the cost to the tourism sector of a two-month travel ban. The Australian Treasurer said that the country would no longer be able to promise a budget surplus due to the outbreak.  ANZ predicted that the GDP would reduce by 0.2%,[503] and PricewaterhouseCoopers estimated that 20,000 Australian jobs would be lost.  The virus is thought to have contributed to a fall in the value of the Australian dollar. The economic cost of the coronavirus in Australia "almost wholly depends on the indirect effects of the decisions that many millions of individuals make to minimise their chance of catching the virus, and the decision of governments on how to react to the threat" according to a quotation in ABC News. China is responsible for around one-third of all exports from Australia including 80% of iron ore exports and 70% of global seaborne supply of steel.  The iron ore shipping gauge dropped 99.9%. The virus has also made shipping and logistic operations of mining companies more complicated. A coal ship was detained off the coast of Gladstone over transmission fears.  The fishing industry is also expected to be "devastated" by the coronavirus outbreak with staff lay offs and business closures.


United States: 


(The Red American States have confirmed virus infected patients and the Light Blue States have suspected virus infected patients)

The viral outbreak was cited by many companies in their briefings to shareholders, but several maintained confidence that they would not be too adversely affected by short-term disruption due to "limited" exposure to the Chinese consumer market. Those with manufacturing lines in mainland China warned about possible exposure to supply shortages. Silicon Valley representatives expressed worries about serious disruption to production lines, as much of the technology sector relies on factories in Mainland China. Since there had been a scheduled holiday over Lunar New Year, the full effects of the outbreak on the tech sector were considered to be unknown as of 31 January 2020, according to The Wall Street Journal. Cities with high populations of Chinese residents have seen an increase in demand for face masks to protect against the virus; many are purchasing masks to mail to relatives in China, Hong Kong, and Macau, where there is a shortage of masks. Due to the large amount of masks being purchased in the United States, many stores have sold out of masks.  This mask shortage has caused an increase in prices.

^ This article is much longer, but I tried to focus on the more recent events. ^

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

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