5 Years Of War

5 Years And Still Going: Russian War In Ukraine:

For 5 years (since February 20, 2014) Russia has been fighting in Ukraine. They have been on two fronts:   Crimea and Donbas.

1.)    Post -Soviet International Treaties Involving Russia and Ukraine:

-              The 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (signed by Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the UK and the US) which stated Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan would give up their Soviet-era nuclear weapons in return for the US, the UK and Russia agreeing not to interfere in the “territorial integrity or political independence” or those 3 former Soviet Republics. Breached by Russia in February 2014.

-              The 1997 Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet (signed by Russia and Ukraine) in which the Soviet Black Sea Fleet that was located in the Crimean Peninsula at the time, was partitioned between Russia (81.7%) and Ukraine (18.3%). Russia maintained the right to use the Port of Sevastopol in Ukraine for 20 years until 2017. The treaty also allowed Russia to maintain up to 25,000 troops, 24 artillery systems, 132 armored vehicles, and 22 military planes on the Crimean Peninsula. Breached by Russia in February 2014.

-              The 1997 Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty (signed by Russia and Ukraine) fixed the principle of strategic partnership, the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders, and respect for territorial integrity and mutual commitment not to use its territory to harm the security of each other. The treaty prevents Ukraine and Russia from invading one another’s country respectively, and declaring war. Breached by Russia in February 2014.  Due to the Russian breach, Ukraine is not extending the treaty once it expires on March 31, 2019.

-              The 2003 Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Ukraine on cooperation in the use of the Sea of Azov and the Strait of Kerch (signed between Russia and Ukraine) Russian–Ukrainian cooperation in the spheres of navigation, fisheries, protection of marine environment, ecological safety and life-saving in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait must be implemented on the basis of existing international agreements and by conclusion, in respective cases, of the new ones. Breached by Russia on November 28, 2018 (Kerch Strait Incident.)

-              The 2010 Kharkiv Pact (signed between Russia and Ukraine) extended  the Russian lease on naval facilities in Crimea  beyond 2017 until 2042, with an additional five-year renewal option in exchange for a multiyear discounted contract to provide Ukraine with Russian natural gas. Breached by Russia in February 2014.

2.) Crimea:

     A.)          20,000-30,000 Russian troops invaded and occupied Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in February 2014 against Ukraine’s 22,000 troops. 1 Russian soldier was killed; 2 Ukrainian soldiers were killed; 3 civilians were killed. At first Russian President Vladimir denied Russian troops were in Crimea, but after being shown international evidence he eventually confirmed their presence and shrugged-off his earlier lies.

B.) On March 16, 2014 Russian-occupied Crimea held an internationally unrecognized referendum on whether to join the Russian Federation or not. Since February 20, 2014, when Russia invaded and started occupying Crimea, the Russian Military had between 20,000-30,000 Russian soldiers and 15,000 defectors from the Ukrainian Military (mostly ethnic Russians) and had secured all strategic areas of Crimea in terms of both territory and administration – breaking International treaties that even Putin himself had signed. With an already ethnic Russian-backed government in place (Fifth Columnists) and the Russian Military controlling things the Crimean people “voted” to leave the Ukraine and become part of Russia. Crimea was officially annexed to the Russian Federation on March 18, 2014. This illegal annexation has led to international sanctions being placed on Russian Government officials and any Russian person or company that does business in occupied Crimea.

C.) Life in Russian-annexed Crimea:

In annexed Crimea, the ethnic Russian population are considered first-class citizens (with those from the Russian Federation - and not Crimea - above them.) The ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Tartars in Crimea are openly and officially discriminated against. Any use of the Tartar or Ukrainian language whether on the radio, TV, in newspapers or books, on the street or in the home can result in arrest and deportation to the Russian Federation (just like in Soviet times.) The economy of annexed Crimea is worse now than 5 years ago due, in large part, to corruption from the government officials sent from Moscow to Crimea to “Russify” all areas of the territory. Tourism, which was once the mainstay of the Crimean economy from Czarist times to Soviet times to Ukrainian times, has plunged in annexed Crimea to near nothing. Ordinary Russians from the Russian Federation cannot afford to take vacations – within Russia, to Crimea or around the world - due to the international sanctions placed on Russia by the US, Canada, the EU, Australia, Japan, etc. and the near collapse of the Russian economy. The only exceptions are the Russian oligarchs, those Russians already outside of the Russian Federation in 2014, Russians sent abroad by the Russian Government and a handful of Russian students. This is despite annexed-Crimea being linked to mainland Russia by the Crimean Bridge on May 16, 2018.

D.) Life In Russia Since It Annexed Crimea:

Five years ago ordinary Russians celebrated the invasion, occupation and annexation of Crimea as a Russian victory that restored Russia’s role in the International Community rather than the “banana republic” most saw it as from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 to the Crimean Annexation of 2014 and now most see it as a huge mistake yet believe that if Russia “caves” into the West and gives Crimea back to the Ukraine then it will return the Russian Federation back to the lawless times of the 1990s (think the Wild Wild West of 1800s America.) Most Russians publically support Putin and his dictatorship because he is the “devil that they know.” Ordinary Russians (especially those that were adults during Soviet times and can “read between the lines” of official media – the only kind available in Russia today) know that Putin’s Russia is almost exactly like the Soviet Communist dictatorship and many do not privately agree with most of his actions – especially against the US, the UK, the EU or Crimea – and would like to see a Russian President actually do something to help improve the lives of ordinary Russians within the Russian Federation rather than make threats and acts of war and violence abroad. Those same people also know that anyone who speaks out against Putin is immediately silenced. Putin has to stay in power because all of his oligarch “friends” today would surely go after him the minute he lost his influence and stopped making them richer and it would most likely be in terms of a Stalin-like revenge. It’s sad to say but the true victims in all of this are the Crimeans (especially the ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Tartars there) and the ordinary Russians within the Russian Federation that can barely provide the basic standard of living for themselves while Putin and his oligarchs are billionaires and have carte blanche to threaten the rest of the world.

3.)           Donbas (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast)

-         April 6, 2014 Russian troops and ethnic Russian paramilitaries started fighting against Ukrainian troops.

-              Since the start of the conflict there have been more than twenty ceasefires, each intended to remain in force indefinitely, but none of them stopped the violence. The most successful attempt to halt the fighting was in 2016, when a ceasefire held for six consecutive weeks. The latest ceasefire came into force on December 29, 2018, and failed the same day.

-              Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that there are no Russian troops fighting in Donbas.

-              Current Troop strength:

A.)          Russian troops and paramilitaries: 40,000-45,000 troops total

(Between 9,000-12,000 Russian soldiers; 3,000-4,000 Russian volunteers; the rest are mercenaries: the Wagner Group, Serb Volunteers, Chechens, Cossacks, etc.)

B.)          Ukrainian troops: 64,000 troops total

-              Casualties and Losses 2014-Present:

A.)          Russian soldiers and paramilitaries: 4,412–5,500 total killed. 

(It is estimated that 500 Russian troops were killed from April 6, 2014 to March 10, 2015. Estimates past March 2015 are unknown as Russia started changing the names, birthdays and cause of deaths of their soldiers killed in Donbas. Since August 2014, Russian soldiers who die in Donbas are secretly buried in the village cemetery in Vybuty near Pskov, Russia or in other cemeteries throughout Russia. Their families are not told the truth about how their loved one died and they do not receive military pensions. Also any Russian soldier wounded while fighting in Ukraine are sent to hospitals throughout Russia under false names and birthdays to disguise the real reason they were wounded. The Soviet Union did the same thing during the Soviet War in Afghanistan from 1979-1989. It was only made public after the USSR collapsed in 1991 that between 13,833–26,000 Soviet soldiers were killed and 53,753  Soviet soldiers were wounded while fighting in Afghanistan.)

B.)          Ukrainians Soldiers

-              Ukrainian soldiers: 4,178 killed

-              Ukrainian soldiers: 123 missing

-              Ukrainian soldiers: 11,813 wounded

C.)          Ethnic Ukrainian and ethnic Russian Civilians

- Killed: 12,800–13,000 men, women and children

  - Wounded: 27,000–30,000 men, women and children

- Internally Displaced: 1,414,798 men, women and children

- Fled Abroad: 925,500 men, women and children