From EuroNews:
“Russian military conscripts
line up under a sign saying "Serving your motherland is a holy duty"”
Tuesday marks the beginning of
Russia's latest conscription campaign after President Vladimir Putin signed a
decree calling up tens of thousands for military service. How many of them will
end up joining the war against Ukraine? Some 133,000 people are about to be
called up for military service in Russia as part of a traditional autumn
conscription campaign, where all men aged between 18 and 30 who are not
reservists and are subject to military service have to be called in for a
12-month period. This autumn call-up, which started Tuesday and runs until 31
December, is the second routine conscription campaign since the maximum age was
raised from 27 to 30. New conscripts
undergo one to two months of basic training, followed by three to six months of
advanced training before arriving at their assigned units. Current law states that conscripts cannot be
deployed to combat with less than four months of training and cannot be
deployed outside of Russia — therefore, to the war in Ukraine. Yet, many of
them are.
How do Russian conscripts end
up in Ukraine? Conscripts cannot legally be deployed to fight outside
Russia, but very often, they end up on the other side of the border by way of
signing up for professional army post-conscription. The Russian NGO “Get
Lost” supports people trying to avoid conscription, which often results in
signing a contract, even unwillingly. Ivan Chuvilyaev said that conscripts are
increasingly being forced to sign contacts with the Russian military. "An
enlisted soldier finds himself in a very difficult situation. In fact, he has
no options not to be on a contract," Chuvilyaev told Euronews. He
explained that at first, soldiers are persuaded to do so with arguments like
"everyone has signed, but you haven't yet, and everyone has received
money, but you haven't." If this doesn't work, they are promised
things, such as "If you sign, we will send you to serve in a safe region
somewhere in the Urals or Siberia or close to home (and) if you don't sign, you
will go to a zone where conscripts can be sent by law." But even
without a contract, conscripts can be sent to illegally annexed Crimea or
Russian regions of Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk — which Chuvilyaev said are not
any safer than temporarily occupied territories in Ukrainian regions of
Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where fierce fighting continues on
the ground. "Finally, the
main thing is that the practice of falsifying documents is very widely used.
The contract is signed for the conscript (by recruiters who) put an 'x' in the
signature box. The soldier finds out about it when he receives a bank card and documents
about allowance," Chuvilyaev explained. Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov
stated on Monday that the Russian MoD is not currently considering another wave
of general mobilisation and is instead focused on having Russian servicemembers
sign military contracts.
There is also forced
mobilisation in Ukraine Last year, Russia's autumn conscription included
residents of the occupied territories of Ukraine. Ukrainian military's
National Resistance Centre reported in September 2023 that the so-called
"federal commissariats" were created in occupied parts of Kherson and
Zaporizhzhia regions. Furthermore, Moscow-installed occupation
administrations regularly posted announcements on Telegram channels, calling on
the local population eligible for the military service to provide personal data
and copies of IDs for "temporary registration" and subsequent
conscription. Euronews contacted
the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Centre for comment regarding this
year's conscription campaign in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine but
received no answer at the time of publication.
Kursk conscripts valuable
assets When Kyiv launched its surprise incursion into the Kursk region of
Russia in early August, hundreds of Russian conscripts were taken POW. Ukrainian
authorities said capturing them on Russian territory helped "replenish the
exchange fund", meaning that these prisoners could be then swapped for
Ukrainian soldiers held in Russian captivity. That is exactly what
happened on September 14 when Ukraine and Russia exchanged 103 POWs. For
the Kremlin, the young Russian soldiers are particularly valuable, given that
in exchange, Moscow let go of 15 defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, who spent
over two years in Russian captivity. Moscow is very reluctant to swap
Azovstal and Mariupol defenders, especially those from the Azov regiment. They
have been absent at most of the POW exchanges.
How many people does Moscow
need? Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far avoided declaring another
partial mobilisation call-up of reservists since his decision to mobilise
300,000 troops in late September 2022 in response to successful Ukrainian
counteroffensive operations. The US-based think tank Institute for the
Study of War (ISW) said Russia appears to lack the necessary manpower to
simultaneously sustain the scale and tempo of offensive operations in Ukraine
and defensive efforts in Russian border regions. UK defence ministry has quoted Russian
officials, who said in 2023 that the MoD was recruiting individuals at a rate
of 1,600 daily. However, publicly cited figures this year put the rate at
around 1,000 a day, which brings the number to 30,000 every month. "These
figures are themselves probably inflated to an extent, but they do demonstrate
that the tactics based on mass infantry waves has required Russia to
continuously replenish frontlines forces," UK MoD's intelligence update
said. Russian military bloggers
claimed in late August that the Russian government continues to rely on the
remnants of regular military forces, mobilised personnel, and deceived
short-term volunteers to continue Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.
How much does it cost? The
Russian government submitted a bill on the federal budget for 2025 to 2027 to
the State Duma on Monday. According to it, the Russian government plans to
spend €165 billion (17 trillion rubles) on national security and defence in
2025 — or about 41% of its annual expenditures. The budget notably allocates €136 million
annually from 2025 to 2027 to create a mobilisation reserve in the Russian
armed forces. The bill also calls for about €388 million in 2025 to fund
the "Defenders of the Fatherland Fund," which supports Russian
veterans and their families.
^ More Cannon Fodder for Putin’s
lost War. ^
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