From Moscow Times:
“Drone Attacks on Moscow Pressure Russia Far From the
Frontlines”
(A woman looks at a damaged building of the Moscow
International Business Center (Moskva City) following a drone attack in Moscow
on August 23, 2023.)
Repeated drone attacks on Moscow and its surrounding areas
reflect a shift in Ukraine’s war strategy to chip away at Russia away from the
frontlines, experts have told The Moscow Times. Russia’s capital, located some
450 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, has been targeted by drones nearly
every night for the past several weeks, damaging buildings and forcing airports
to temporarily close. The once-unthinkable attacks on Moscow have now become a
routine part of the war for many.
As Kyiv’s summer counteroffensive in the east and south has
so far failed to make a major breakthrough, it is looking for other tactics to
change the course of the war, analysts say. “Ukraine is in a difficult
position,” political risk analyst and GeopoLytics founder Jozef Hrabina told
The Moscow Times. “It has been fighting against Goliath since the beginning,
but now it fights a well-fortified Goliath that outnumbers it in every measurable
aspect.” “A larger-scale deployment of drones to weaken Russian defense lines
would make sense in this regard.” Russian authorities say that Ukraine is
behind the attacks on Moscow, but Kyiv has not acknowledged involvement. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky said last month that the war was “gradually
returning to the territory of Russia — to its symbolic centers and military
bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.” While
Russian air defense systems have usually been successful in downing the drones,
their wreckage often crashes into civilian buildings and infrastructure.
(A view of a damaged office block in the Moscow City
financial district following a reported drone attack on July 30.)
With the attacks on Moscow, Kyiv aims to demonstrate that it
can bring the war home to Russians, who for 19 months have mostly lived
detached from the grim realities of the conflict, including alleged war crimes
and the wholesale destruction of Ukrainian cities by their country’s military. In doing so, Ukraine hopes that it can sway
attitudes inside Russia, leading to movements that would push for an end to the
war. But Ukraine manages a delicate balancing act: the drone attacks risk
further boosting pro-war sentiment inside Russia, as well as alienating
anti-war Russians. “The impact [of the drone attacks] is deeply contradictory,”
said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Carnegie Eurasia fellow and the founder of R.Politik.
“On one hand, it reinforces pro-war sentiments among ordinary Russians. This
prompts them to trust that only their government can shield them from a
‘hostile’ Ukraine and the West. It simultaneously amplifies anti-Ukrainian
sentiments, leaving little space for any pro-peace aspirations.” Kyiv also risks friction with its Western
allies, some of whom question whether the arms they supply to Ukraine should be
used for non-defensive purposes. At the same time, the attacks on Russian
territory have dealt a blow to Putin’s strongman image and undermined the
Kremlin’s “red lines” rhetoric, which warned that any incursions into Russia
would be met with a fierce response.
(Emergency services at the Moscow City tower, which was hit
by a drone on Aug. 23.)
Russian officials “find themselves handcuffed in addressing
such attacks, often having to tolerate them despite calls from the patriotic
faction to take a more aggressive stance against Ukraine,” Stanovaya said. Putin
“aims to steer clear of any escalation that he doesn't control, wary of losing
the initiative and being ensnared in resource-draining conflicts without
tangible benefits.” “In Putin's
perspective, Kyiv will eventually concede without Russia having to seize
control of a bigger part of Ukrainian territory — a move Russia can’t afford,
not to mention the risks of nuclear escalation,” she added. Given the restrained response to its attacks,
Ukraine is likely to feel emboldened to take its actions further. “It is likely
that Ukraine is testing its potential for a large-scale drone deployment on
Russian soil,” Hrabina said. Kyiv hopes
that the continued attacks will, over time, drive war fatigue inside Russia and
potentially weaken morale, both among the civilian population and among
soldiers fighting in trenches in Ukraine and watching the attacks on central
Moscow. But drone strikes in Russia also
have a practical purpose, namely severing the Russian military’s supply lines
with attacks on critical infrastructure, such as the Crimea bridge and roads in
the occupied southeastern Ukrainian territories. These attacks have for the
most part avoided civilian casualties. In order to prevent escalation and the
alienation of its Western donors, Ukraine will likely prioritize strategic
military targets and government buildings.
^ It’s important that the Ordinary Russian understands that the
Russian War in Ukraine is killing real people and damaging real buildings. By
showing Moscow is constantly under threat the same way that every Ukrainian
City is from Russian Bombs helps bring the War to the Russians. Putin can’t
hide these attacks like he has Russia’s War Crimes in Ukraine. ^
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