From Yahoo:
“Traditional TV 'past the point of no return' as viewership
hits record low”
According to the latest data from Nielsen, linear TV
viewership fell below 50% in July for the first time. Broadcast and cable each
hit a new low of 20% and 29.6% of total TV usage, respectively, to combine for
a linear television total of 49.6%.
Time spent streaming (via a television) increased 2.9% in
July compared with June, according to the data, to reach a record of 38.7% of
total TV usage. YouTube (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX), and Amazon Prime Video (AMZN)
all saw month-over-month viewership increases of 5.6%, 4.2%, and 5%,
respectively, in July. "Linear TV [is] past the point of no return,"
Macquarie analyst Tim Nollen wrote in a note to clients on Monday, adding the
revenue line for cable and satellite operators is "probably permanently
negative" as pricing fails to drive upside while TV advertising growth
stalls. "We think the metrics for linear TV are all bad," the analyst
continued. "Ad revenue across our media network coverage fell 13% on
average in Q2, down from -8% in 1Q, which included the Super Bowl. We forecast
the second half of the year will get slightly better, but to remain negative
including an off-political year comparison." The data comes as more
consumers drop their cable packages in a trend known as cord-cutting and
instead opt for streaming services that are traditionally less profitable for
media companies.
Still, streaming is not exactly outperforming either, Nollen
warned, explaining subscriber numbers at major direct-to-consumer services
(DTC) including Peacock, Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+, Paramount+, Max and Discovery+
were down by about 500,000 combined. "Global DTC subscriber growth was
8.5% year-over-year (YoY), slowing to single digits for the first time,"
he wrote, adding the growth was aided by Netflix's password-sharing crackdown,
which helped the streamer add 5.9 million subscribers in the second quarter. Comcast's
Peacock (CMCSA) was able to grow its subscriber base 84% year-over-year to 24
million, up from the prior 13 million, as the streamer works to catch up to its
peers amid a significant lag. "June 26 was the last day for Xfinity
subscribers to get Peacock for free," Nollen noted, citing that deadline
as a likely catalyst for the subscriber additions. "This pricing trend follows
Disney's collective price hikes, with Hulu soon to be the most expensive ad
free platform at $17.99. As land grabs for subscribers have slowed, companies
have turned to pricing increases to fuel revenue growth."
Another area that's fueling revenue growth?
Direct-to-consumer advertising, which grew 27% on average across media
companies including Disney (DIS), Comcast, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and
Paramount (PARA). That's double from the 13% growth posted in the first
quarter. Nollen said Comcast is the farthest behind, as only 14% of its
estimated revenues are expected to come from DTC in 2024 with the other 85%
stemming from its linear networks. Disney is the farthest along, with DTC
revenue expected to surpass linear network revenue for the first time in 2024.
^ I believe that most Americans watch their Television Shows
and Movies from Streaming and Other Online Sources rather than from the
Traditional Television Sources (Cable or Satellite.) I think it is more convenient
to do and cheaper to do. I think this trend will only continue. ^
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