From the BBC:
“Donald Trump 2024: Six ways
running will be harder for him this time”
Donald Trump has announced his
third-straight presidential bid, in an extremely rare attempt by a former US
leader to recapture the White House after losing an election. The former
president's aides are saying this announcement - and this campaign - will look
more like 2016 than 2020, according to reports. Stripped of the powers of
office, Mr Trump will frame himself as an outsider, seeking to disrupt a
political establishment on the left and right that views him with hostility. In
2016, despite seemingly long odds, Mr Trump first beat his Republican rivals
and then narrowly defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton, who was seeking to win a
third consecutive White House term for her party. It was an improbable
achievement but one that showcased Mr Trump's undeniable strengths as a
candidate. He has an unmatched sense of which issues are important to
grass-roots conservatives. His unpredictable and inflammatory style can drive
news coverage and deny the spotlight to his competitors. He has a base of loyal
supporters and can motivate typically unengaged Americans to vote. And after
four years in office, many of those supporters hold positions of authority
within the Republican Party. Even so, there's reason to believe the task ahead
of him will be a daunting one. Here's why.
1. Running with a record Eight
years ago, Mr Trump was a political blank slate. With no record as an
officeholder, voters could project their hopes and desires onto him. He could
make expansive promises - so much winning! - without critics pointing to past
shortcomings and failures. That's not the case anymore. While Mr Trump
had some notable policy achievements during his four years in office, including
tax cuts and criminal justice reform, he also had some prominent failures. Republicans
will remember his inability to repeal Democratic healthcare reforms and his
repeated promises of infrastructure investment that never came to fruition. And
then there's Mr Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which could open
him up to attacks on multiple fronts. Democrats have long criticised his
response as insufficiently aggressive, but there are some on the right who
believe he went too far in supporting government-mandated mitigation efforts.
2. The shadow of January 6 Mr
Trump won't just have to run on his policy record as president, either. He will
have to defend the way he handled the end of his presidency, and his role in
the 6 January attack on the US Capitol. The images of that day, with
supporters waving Trump banners amid the teargas as they ransacked the Capitol
and temporarily halted the peaceful transition of power, will not be easily
forgotten. The midterm elections demonstrated that what happened that
day - and Mr Trump's words and actions in the weeks leading up to it - may
still be influencing voter behaviour. Many Republican candidates who
offered full-throated support for Mr Trump's refusal to accept the results of
the 2020 election lost. Lots of them underperformed other Republican candidates
in their states who were not outspoken in their election-denial.
3. Legal headaches One of
the reasons floated for why Mr Trump appears so eager to launch another
presidential bid is because it will allow him to more effectively frame his
multiple criminal and civil investigations as part of a larger political
vendetta. While that might work for public-relations purposes, Mr
Trump's legal exposure in these cases is very real. The former president
currently is defending against a criminal election-tampering inquiry in
Georgia, a civil fraud case targeting his business empire in New York, a
defamation lawsuit involving a sexual assault allegation, and federal probes
into his role in the Capitol attack and his post-presidential handling of
classified material. Any of these investigations could lead to
full-blown trials that would dominate the headlines and at least temporarily
derail Mr Trump's campaign plans. At best for him, it would be a costly
distraction. A worst-case scenario would include massive financial penalties or
prison.
4. A tougher opponent As
the Republican presidential contest began eight years ago, Mr Trump faced off
against a Florida governor considered to be the party's prohibitive favourite.
Jeb Bush, however, proved a paper tiger. A massive campaign war chest
and a famous last name was not enough. He was out of step with the Republican
base on immigration and education policy. And the Bush name didn't carry the
power within the party that it once did. If Mr Trump wants the
nomination in 2024, he may once again have to go through a Florida governor.
Unlike Mr Bush, however, Ron DeSantis just won an overwhelming re-election
victory that suggests he is in tune with his party's core supporters. While he
has yet to be tested on the national stage, his political star is ascending.
It's unclear if Mr DeSantis will run, or who else will enter the Republican
presidential contest at this point. The Florida governor could emerge as
the consensus pick among the party faithful not interested in giving Mr Trump
another shot. If so, Republican voters may have the kind of binary choice that
will improve their odds of stopping Mr Trump before his nomination is secured.
5. Popularity woes On the
eve of Mr Trump's presidential announcement, a conservative group released a
series of polls that showed Mr Trump trailing Ron DeSantis in a head-to-head
matchup by double-digits among Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Those
states hold votes early in the Republican nomination process. Mr
DeSantis also led by 26 points in Florida and by 20 in Georgia, which has a
Senate run-off election in December. In all these states, Mr Trump's numbers
were well down on previous surveys. According to exit polls from the
recently concluded midterm elections, Mr Trump is simply not very popular -
including in the key states he would need to win to secure the presidency in a
general election. In New Hampshire, only 30% of voters said they wanted
Mr Trump to run for president again. Even in Florida, that number only rose to
33%. Of course, Mr Trump overcame net-negative views of his candidacy in
2015 as well. But after eight years as a political figure on the national
stage, those views may be much less likely to change this time around.
6. Father time If he wins
the presidency, Mr Trump would be 78 years old when he's sworn in. And while
that's the same age Joe Biden was when he moved in to the White House, it would
make him the second-oldest president in US history. Time takes its toll
in different ways on different people, but the increasing burdens of age are
inevitable. There's no guarantee that Mr Trump can withstand the kind of
rigorous campaigning required to win the Republican nomination - particularly
one where he will probably be pitted against much younger candidates. Mr
Trump has shown remarkable endurance in the past, but every man has his limits.
^ This is just plain sad. It is
just a delusional act by someone who craves attention. He didn’t win in 2020
and I hope he doesn’t win 2024 – or even the Republican Nomination. Can’t he
just stay in Florida and retire? That would be great for everybody and the
country as a whole. ^
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.