Ian's Track

From AccuWeather:

“Latest timing and track for Hurricane Ian landfall in Florida”

Floridians rushed to evacuate on Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Ian as the Category 3 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph down from 125 mph earlier in the morning, pounded the western tip of Cuba with fierce winds and life-threatening storm surge. Ian became the strongest storm to make landfall in Cuba since Category 5 Hurricane Irma in 2017. The major hurricane, which is set to strengthen further and reach Category 4 force later Tuesday or Wednesday over the bath-warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday night, putting places like Tampa and points farther south at risk for extremely dangerous storm surge among other hazards. AccuWeather forecasters have rated Ian a 3 on the RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes for the United States due to the dangers, which will include flooding rainfall and damaging winds even for areas well inland from where the Ian crashes onshore around midnight Thursday.

Jamie Rhome, the acting director of the National Hurricane Center, told CNN that Tuesday is the last day for people to safely flee ahead of the monster storm, and Lee County, which issued mandatory evacuation orders on Tuesday morning had opened public shelters. Those who remain behind will need to hunker down, prepared to ride out a major hurricane hit - one that he said one day earlier on CNN will be "the storm of a lifetime for many Tampa Bay residents." Ian was swirling 340 miles southwest of Sarasota, Florida, as of Tuesday morning and was moving northward at 12 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended outward 35 miles and tropical storm-force winds reached 115 miles from the center, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Hurricane warnings were in effect along the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, as well as the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning was in effect from north of Anclote River to the Suwannee River.

After exploding into a Cat 4 storm, Ian will lose some wind intensity due to disruptive wind shear before it turns to the northeast and makes landfall along the west central coast of Florida late Wednesday to Wednesday night. AccuWeather forecasters warn that the full force of a major hurricane should be expected as Ian slams into central Florida. As steering breezes ease at midweek, there is the potential for the storm to slow down as it nears the Florida coast and drifts inland, which can exacerbate dangers by increasing the duration of flooding rain, high winds and coastal inundation.

The effects of the large hurricane will be far-reaching across the Florida Peninsula with damaging wind gusts and power outages possible throughout. The greatest risk to lives and property will be due to storm surge and coastal inundation. Ian has been designated a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States, meaning AccuWeather forecasters believe the storm poses a high risk to life and property across a significant portion of Florida due to the persistent threat of storm surge along the Gulf coast of Florida in addition to widespread damaging winds and flooding rainfall. "The worst conditions in terms of storm surge will depend on exactly where the center of the storm moves inland along the Gulf coast," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. "Should the center of the storm move in just south of St. Petersburg, say near Sarasota, then communities around Tampa Bay would be spared the worse water rise. In this case, however, a serious water level rise could inundate areas farther south, perhaps from Venice to Port Charlotte and Cape Coral," Kottlowski explained. It is still possible for the eye of Ian to jog just to the north of Tampa or perhaps even a bit farther to the north along the Florida Gulf coast at the last minute. "A landfall near or just north of Clearwater could be a worst case scenario in terms of water level rise in Tampa Bay," Kottlowski said.

A water level rise of 6 to 10 feet, which can occur anywhere just south of where the eye makes landfall, is expected to have catastrophic consequences. Even if the center of Ian tracks in south of St. Petersburg, torrential rain and storm surge will still lead to significant coastal and inland flooding in the Tampa Bay area. Both of these conditions are a concern for areas in Florida as far away as Jacksonville, which is about 200 miles Northeast of Tampa along the state's northern Atlantic coast. "Easterly winds will push Atlantic Ocean water toward the Florida east coast," Kottlowski said. "The combination of easterly winds and torrential rainfall can lead to a double-whammy effect of with significant flooding along the St. Johns River in the Jacksonville area." Power outages could be long-lasting in some communities. While the storm's overall highest wind gusts were likely to occur over western Cuba, gusts reaching 100 to 120 mph will blast the west-central portion of the Florida Peninsula. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 150 mph is possible near and just to the northeast of the point of landfall.

Torrential rain will be the most frequent near and north of the storm track with a general 8-16 inches and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 30 inches forecast. Even though the soil is sandy and porous over much of Florida , rainfall of this magnitude will lead to widespread flooding in central and northern Florida. Major urban flooding is likely around Tampa, Orlando, Ocala and The Villages. However, localized incidents of flooding rain can occur farther south over the Florida Peninsula, including in places like Melbourne, Miami and West Palm Beach, as well as the Florida Keys due to spiral bands. Severe thunderstorms, some with the potential to spawn brief tornadoes, will add to the danger and risk of power outages and property damage more than 100 miles from where the center of Ian makes landfall. Waterspouts will pose dangers to coastal areas as some of these may come ashore as tornadoes.

AccuWeather forecasters began alerting the public of the potential for a hurricane to threaten Florida early last week in order to give people time to take the necessary precautions to save lives and protect property. With Ian continuing to strengthen, the entire AccuWeather team is urging those in the path of the storm to stay vigilant and heed the advice and orders of local officials. The risk to lives and property from the effects of Ian will extend well beyond Florida. Slow forward motion of the storm could have serious consequences for other states such as Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virginia and the eastern parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. The latest indications are that Ian, as a tropical storm, depression or rainstorm, could wander slowly northwestward over the Southeastern states through the weekend and threaten the likelihood of torrential rainfall and flooding.Near the Georgia and Carolina coast, there is also the potential for inundation due to both storm surge and heavy rainfall. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

^ I hope Ian weakens and doesn’t cause any more damage or deaths. ^

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