From Military.com:
“US Intelligence Finds Russia
Planning Ukraine Offensive”
President Joe Biden has pledged
to make it “very, very difficult” for Russia’s Vladimir Putin to take military
action in Ukraine as U.S. intelligence officials determined that Russian
planning is underway for a possible military offensive that could begin as soon
as early 2022. The new intelligence finding estimates that the Russians are
planning to deploy an estimated 175,000 troops and almost half of them are
already deployed along various points near Ukraine's border, according to a
Biden administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to
discuss the finding.
It comes as Russia has picked up
its demands on Biden to guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed to join the
NATO alliance. The official added that the plans call for the movement of 100
Russian battalion tactical groups along with armor, artillery and equipment. Intelligence
officials also have seen an uptick in Russian propaganda efforts through the
use of proxies and media outlets to denigrate Ukraine and NATO ahead of a
potential invasion, the official said. Asked about the intelligence finding as
he set out for the presidential retreat at Camp David on Friday evening, Biden
reiterated his concerns about Russian provocations. "We’ve been aware of
Russia’s actions for a long time and my expectation is we’re gonna have a long
discussion with Putin,” Biden said.
The risks of such a gambit for
Putin, if he actually went through with an invasion, would be enormous. U.S.
officials and former U.S. diplomats say while Putin clearly is laying the
groundwork for a possible invasion, Ukraine’s military is better armed and
prepared today than in past years, and the sanctions threatened by the West
would do serious damage to Russia’s economy. It remains unclear if Putin
intends to go through with what would be a risky offensive, they say. Earlier
Friday, Biden pledged to make it “very, very difficult” for Putin to take
military action in Ukraine and said new initiatives coming from his
administration are intended to deter Russian aggression. “What I am doing is
putting together what I believe to be will be the most comprehensive and
meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to
go ahead and do what people are worried he may do,” Biden told reporters. The
Kremlin said Friday that Putin would seek binding guarantees precluding NATO’s
expansion to Ukraine during the call with Biden. But Biden sought to head off
the demand. “I don’t accept anyone’s red line," Biden said.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials
also warned that Russia could invade next month. Ukrainian Defense Minister
Oleksii Reznikov told lawmakers Friday that the number of Russian troops near
Ukraine and in Russia-annexed Crimea is estimated at 94,300, warning that a
“large-scale escalation” is possible in January. U.S. intelligence officials
estimate closer to 70,000 troops are deployed near the border, according to an
unclassified intelligence document obtained Friday by The Associated Press. The
intelligence findings were first reported by The Washington Post.
There are signs that the White
House and Kremlin are close to arranging a conversation next week between Biden
and Putin. Putin’s foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters Friday
that arrangements have been made for a Putin-Biden call in the coming days,
adding that the date will be announced after Moscow and Washington finalize
details. The Russians say a date has been agreed upon, but declined to say
when. Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have also tentatively
agreed to have a call next week, according to a person close to the Ukrainian
president who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of
anonymity. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said administration officials
have “engaged in the possibility” of a Biden-Putin call. White House officials
did not respond to a request for comment on the expected Zelenskyy call. “It
certainly would be an opportunity to discuss our serious concerns about the
bellicose rhetoric, about the military buildup that we’re seeing on the border
of Ukraine,” Psaki said of a potential Biden-Putin call. Biden did not detail
what actions he was weighing. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who met
Thursday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Sweden, said the U.S. has
threatened new sanctions. He did not detail the potential sanctions but
suggested the effort would not be effective. “If the new ‘sanctions from hell’
come, we will respond," Lavrov said. “We can’t fail to respond." Psaki
said the administration would look to coordinate with European allies if it
moved forward with sanctions. She noted that bitter memories of Russia's 2014
annexation of Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that had been under Ukraine's
control since 1954, are front of mind as the White House considers the way
forward. “We know what President Putin has done in the past,” Psaki said. “We
see that he is putting in place the capacity to take action in short order.”
Deep differences were on display
during the Blinken-Lavrov meeting, with the Russia official charging the West
was “playing with fire” by denying Russia a say in any further NATO expansion
into countries of the former Soviet Union. Zelenskyy has pushed for Ukraine to
join the alliance, which holds out the promise of membership but hasn’t set a a
timeline. Blinken this week said the U.S. has “made it clear to the Kremlin
that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high-impact economic
measures that we’ve refrained from using in the past.” He did not detail what
sanctions were being weighed, but one potentially could be to cut off Russia
from the SWIFT system of international payments. The European Union’s
Parliament approved a nonbinding resolution in April to cut off Russia from
SWIFT — the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications — if
its troops entered Ukraine. Such a move would go far toward blocking Russian
businesses from the global financial system. Western allies reportedly
considered such a step in 2014 and 2015, during earlier Russian-led escalations
of tensions over Ukraine. Then-Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said it
would be tantamount to “a declaration of war.” But some U.S. government
officials say Putin also could be seeking attention and concessions from Biden
and other Western leaders, using the military escalation to force Russia back
into a central role in world affairs as it had in the days of the Soviet Union.
“They are seriously envious for superpower status and ... the parity to the
United States that existed during the Cold War. That’s what this is all about,”
said John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. An invasion is possible,
but more likely, “they provoke a crisis, they get concessions from us, and then
they reduce the crisis. Right? And that, I think, is probably their objective,”
Herbst said Friday.
^ It does seem that Russia is getting
ready to invade the rest of Ukraine as they did in 2014 in Crimea. The US, the
EU, the UN and the whole world needs to stand firm against anymore Russian
interference there. Hopefully, things can get settled diplomatically. ^
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