From the CBC:
“Why we need
to rethink COVID-19 risk as the weather warms up”
This is an
excerpt from Second Opinion, a weekly roundup of health and medical science
news emailed to subscribers every Saturday morning. If you haven't subscribed
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It's been
almost a year of "Stay home. Do nothing. Save lives." And people are
tired. Pandemic fatigue has turned to pandemic
restlessness as the weather shows signs of improving and vaccines gradually
roll out across the country. Hope is on the horizon, but if last spring is any
predictor of what lies ahead we can expect to see Canadians flocking outdoors
in search of safe ways to gather as temperatures rise. And with good reason. After a surge of cases after the holidays,
Canada has seen a significant decline in COVID-19 levels across the country
following lockdowns in hard-hit regions — even with frigid temperatures driving
people indoors and more contagious variants spreading. As more people get
vaccinated, cases (hopefully) continue to decline and society slowly reopens,
it may be time to shift our messaging away from strict one-size-fits-all public
health guidelines.
Allow small
risks to counter fatigue Experts say officials need to start to shift their
messaging and set out realistic parameters for socializing safely over the next
few months or risk losing the room — or worse, pushing people to more dangerous
behaviour. Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious diseases physician at St.
Joseph's Healthcare in Hamilton, Ont., says guidelines need to shift in Canada
to educate people on how to see their friends and family safely. "Now that transmission is down, we
need to start making some discussions on the trade offs," he said. "Can
you really realistically think that people can wait it out at home without any
interactions outside of their household for another three months? Or can you at
least start prioritizing and building in low risk stuff, so that you give
people the sense of normalcy?" Chagla
says recent negative reactions to outdoor activities like tobogganing and
skating rinks mirror concerns at the start of the pandemic, when outdoor
gatherings in places like parks were seen as dangerous even with no evidence of
transmission occurring. In
Ontario, reservations for provincial parks have surged in anticipation of
warmer months ahead, nearly doubling in the first few weeks of this year.
Cottage rentals are also in high demand, with bookings at levels never seen
before. There's no doubt people will want to congregate more as the weather
improves, and experts say we should transition from an abstinence approach to
one of harm reduction. "If you gave
people that opportunity to do things appropriately outside, how many cases
would you then save from indoor activity?" said Chagla. "If you allow
them to take that small risk, you're preventing the people that are going to
fatigue and say, 'Well, I'm just going to have my family over, we've been fine,
we've been isolating for weeks, I deserve this,' and then have COVID
transmission that way."
Outside is
better than inside Finding practical ways to alleviate pandemic fatigue and
allow for some level of safe interaction in the coming weeks and months will be
essential to keeping Canada on a downward trajectory with COVID-19 levels. "People are tired of the sacrifices
they've made, and for their mental health and physical health want to see other
people and want to socialize," said Linsey Marr, an expert on the airborne
transmission of viruses at Virginia Tech. "Doing it outdoors is
very low risk if you avoid face-to-face conversation with people, maintain your
distance and avoid crowds." Marr
says going for a walk side-by-side, taking an exercise class or even having a
beer with friends are all relatively safe outdoors when more than two-metres of
space is maintained. New research
from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows the risk of
indoor activities when proper precautions aren't taken. In Hawaii, 21 cases were linked to a
fitness instructor during a class where physical distancing measures were in
place, but masks weren't worn and airflow wasn't prioritized. A similar situation occurred in Chicago,
where 55 people were infected with COVID-19 after attending indoor exercise
classes despite physical distancing and some mask use. The missing element in both of those
outbreaks was ventilation. "We
should be opening up park spaces, we should be encouraging outdoor activities
where people can gather and gather safely and converse and talk and just be
with people," said Erin Bromage, a biology professor and immunologist at
the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth who studies infectious diseases. "Recognizing
that there is a small risk associated with it — but it's better than the
alternative."
'Get creative'
with public health messaging Timothy Caulfield, a Canada Research Chair in
health law and policy at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, said public
health officials are walking a "tightrope" in communicating public
health guidelines in the coming months. "We have to figure out ways that we
can allow people to live their lives, while still making sure that we're
reducing the risk," he said. "And I think we need to engage people as
part of the solution." A recent research article published in SAGE
surveyed several hundred Italian and French citizens under strict lockdown and
found there was significantly less adherence to public health guidelines when
people's concern about COVID-19 was waning, along with their trust in
officials. The World Health Organization released guidelines for
fighting pandemic fatigue, focused on understanding people, allowing them to
live their lives while reducing risk, engaging with them to find a solution and
acknowledging the impact of the pandemic on their lives. Caulfield says
officials need to evolve their messaging with emerging scientific research and
avoid being tuned out by the public by setting realistic guidelines for safely
interacting. "We need to
recognize that we're really getting to a point where there's going to be profound
complacency," he said. "There is profound fatigue, and not
just fatigue about the lockdown. I think there's fatigue about the messaging —
people are sick of hearing about this stuff. So I think we need to get
creative."
Variants
make noncompliance higher risk Bromage said he's concerned transmission
could soon skyrocket due to increased interactions with warm weather amid the
spread of variants. "We're
heading into March very soon, and March is when the pandemic really took off
last year," he said. "I'm holding my breath, just sort of hoping that
it's not a repeat of 2020 given the changing mobility that comes with the
weather." COVID-19 levels have risen by about five per cent
globally in the past week, after significant declines since the beginning of
the year, with recent upticks in parts of Canada and the U.S. concerning
officials. "What comes next is really uncertain. Do we roll back up
again? Do we just stay at this level?" said Bromage. "Nobody really
knows." Chagla says we need to give people more low risk activities
to do together in the near future, or risk people hiding their interactions
with each other behind closed doors. "A
Zoom call versus seeing a very close friend with a mask in the park is slightly
higher risk," he said. "But I think using it to allay fatigue is
probably a whole lot better than the implications of just keeping people at
home." Caulfield says
officials need to re-evaluate public health messaging and explain clearly to
people what's safe and what isn't. "I
do want to see recommendations on what they can do outside now and how they can
enjoy the weather," he said. "Let's put a positive spin on this,
letting them know that there are steps that can be taken." With the
emergence of variants, Chagla says the risk of people letting their guard down
now is incredibly high. "You've
got to get people on your side for the next few months," said Chagla.
"And realistically offering things to them, rather than taking things
away, is going to be the way to do it."
^ This may be
written about Canada, but can easily be applied to the US, Italy, the UK, etc.
With more and more people getting vaccinated and warmer weather coming up (not
to mention it’s been over 1 year since the Pandemic started) we need to have
realistic restrictions rather than the chaos, confusion and fear restrictions of
the past. Covid Vaccine Passports are a good idea ONLY when there are enough available
vaccines to give to every citizen that wants one. To do that before (when only
certain groups can get the shots) is discrimination and only enforces the “Have’s
and the Have-Nots.” If Politicians do not start making realistic Covid
Restrictions instead of the Fear Restrictions they have been then no one can
expect any real compliance anymore. ^
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-risk-canada-weather-1.5930135